Fundamental Announcements for November 15th – 21st

Monday

JPY

GDP q/q and y/y (**)

On Sunday night US time, the Japanese government is releasing preliminary GDP data for the third quarter, both in quarterly and annual terms. If it avoids contraction, be ready for a strengthening yen because economists anticipate a decline by 0.2% q/q and 0.8% y/y. 

AUD 

RBA Meeting Minutes 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which will provide more details on the latest meeting, comprising in-depth analysis of the economic conditions that led to the decision to keep the rate at a record low of 0.1% as expected.

 

Tuesday

GBP

Average Earnings Index + Bonus

On Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release wages data for September, including bonduses. Analysts expect earnings to have increased by 5.6%, a slowdown from August’s surge of 7.2%. 

Claimant Count Change

Later that day, the ONS will also release the change in the unemployed people in October. A higher-than-expected reading usually provides a bearish signal for the pound. 

Unemployment Rate

Another piece of data scheduled for Tuesday is the UK’s unemployment rate for September, which is expected to have declined for a fifth month in a row to 4.4% from August’s 4.5%. 

EUR

Eurozone GDP q/q and y/y

Eurostat will reveal preliminary GDP data of the eurozone for the third quarter. The European economy is expected to have accelerated by 2.2% compared to the previous quarter and by 3.7% compared to Q3 2020. 

USD

Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales m/m

The US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October, which can be a major catalyst for the US dollar. Economists anticipate that retail sales had increased last month by 1% in monthly terms. The Core Retail Sales, which excludes auto and gas sales, may have increased by 0.8%, analysts say. Credit Suisse argues that the autos and gas components should contribute to the main indicator considering that vehicle sales rose at an annualised rate of 13.1 million in October from 12.4million in September. Also, gasoline prices surged 6% over the month, pointing to strong demand. 

Industrial Production y/y

Later on Tuesday, the Fed will release Industrial Production data for October. 

 

Wednesday

GBP

CPI m/m & y/y

Last week, we reported that the US CPI saw the biggest annual gain in 31 years, and now it’s time for the UK to show its cards. Economists expect the UK consumer price index (CPI) to have increased by 3.9% in October year-on-year, following the 3.1% increase in September. However, it’s quite likely that the actual reading will come higher, which may help the pound recover some of its recent losses against the greenback. 

EUR

Eurozone CPI m/m & y/y

Eurostat will also release inflation data for October a few hours after the UK report. Economists anticipate the CPI to have surged by 4.1% last month year-on-year, a similar reading to September. 

USD

Building Permits 

The housing market accounts for a good chunk of the US economy, and traders will monitor some relevant data on Wednesday. The Commerce Department will publish building permits data for October. Economists expect the reading to come in at 1.63 million units, up from September’s 1.586 million permits. 

Housing Starts

Analysts expect an uptick in housing starts for October as well, with estimates suggesting 1.58 million units. 

CAD

Core CPI m/m & y/y

Wednesday will be a busy day that will end with Canada’s inflation data for October. Investors will pay attention to the Core version. The Reserve Bank of Canada said in its weekly outlook: “Annual CPI growth is still being biased higher by weak year-ago comparable prices when the economic impact of the pandemic was more severe, but price growth has also been broadening versus pre-pandemic levels as well, and that is expected to continue in October.”


Thursday

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

The US Labor Department will release its weekly report on initial applications for unemployment benefits, with analysts expecting a slowdown to 260,000 new claims after 267,000 applications in the previous week. That can be the eighth straight weekly decline, which reflects improving labor market conditions. 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

The Federal Reserve of Philadelphia will release its manufacturing index for November. 

 

Friday

GBP

Retail Sales m/m & y/y

Following the US, the UK is next in line to present its retail sales data for October, which reflects consumer spending at retailers. Economists anticipate an increase by 0.4% in monthly terms and a decline by almost 2% compared to the same month last year. 

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

The same piece of data, although covering September, will be released by the Canadian government. However, investors will keep an eye on the less volatile Core Retail Sales data. 

 

 

 

 

 

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